Michael looks to earn $37 million to $38 million on Friday alone for a projected three-day opening of $88 million or more.
A milestone victory for Lionsgate, according to those with access to grosses, the pic could easily clear $180 million in its debut, considering Jackson is an even bigger draw overseas, where Michael is likewise off to a record start (Universal is handling the film internationally).
Heading into the weekend, Michael was tracking to open in the $65 million-$70 million range domestically, which would have already been enough to boast the biggest opening of all time for a music biopic, not adjusted for inflation.
The current record-holder is Universal's Straight Outta Compton ($60.1 million) followed by Fox's Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody ($55 million).
An inkling of Michael's true potential was revealed when the film earned $12.6 million in Wednesday and Thursday previews, on par with 2026 box office hit Hail Project Mary, and ahead of such event pics including Dune: Part II and Oppenheimer, which both reported preview grosses in the $10 million range.
The big unknown was how front-loaded Michael would be.
At the same time, it was clear moviegoers were over-the-moon for the film, which boasts a coveted 96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.
On Thursday, headlines focused on Michael's worrisome RT critics' score, which bounced between 29 percent and 33 percent.
Many of the reviews seemingly took issue with the fact that producer Graham King, along with Lionsgate, had decided to end the movie before Jackson became engulfed in allegations of child sexual abuse (the Jackson estate backed the project). The film's initial budget of $155 million came in closer to $200 million after tens of millions were spent on additional photography to make that decision a reality.
"Fuqua and screenwriter John Logan don't exactly break the mold with Michael, nor do they stuff it with major revelations.
But they tap into a vein of melancholy underlaying the stratospheric success that's surprisingly affecting," THR chief film critic David Rooney writes in its review. "The online mob will be sharpening their pitchforks given the movie's failure to address the accusations of child sexual abuse that tarnished Michael Jackson's legacy. But the filmmakers get around that by focusing on his early career, ending with the 1988 Bad World Tour concert in London, years before allegations first surfaced. The epilogue card reading 'His story continues' does some heavy lifting."
By Thursday night, the critics' score had risen to 40 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.
While that's far from ideal, strong audience exits are more than making up for it.
When Michael first came on tracking three weeks ago, the domestic opening range was $55 million to $60 million.
While still a great number, the subsequent spike signals that Michael may be benefiting from the nostalgia factor that is inspiring infrequent moviegoers to return to the multiplex in droves for the first time since the pandemic, or sparking interest among the most avid moviegoing demo, Gen Zers.
Overseas, Michael is opening in 82 markets, excluding Japan.
It unfurled in most key markets on Wednesday, earning $16.6 million for a running total of $18.5 million, including previews.
International Wednesday highlights included:
France ($2.6 million): Biggest opening day ever for a biopic, coming in well above the Wednesday openings of both Oppenheimer and Bohemian Rhapsody.
U.K. & Ireland ($2.6 million): Biggest opening day for a musical biopic of all time, ahead of the Wednesday opening of Bohemian Rhapsody and well above the Friday openings of Elvis and Rocketman.
Italy ($1.3 million): Biggest opening day ever for a musical biopic, above Bohemian Rhapsody.
Australia ($1 million): Biggest opening day for a musical biopic ever, beating Elvis.
Brazil ($651,000): Michael added another $651,000 in previews for a running total of $2 million.
The combined preview result represents the biggest ever for a non-superhero, non-franchise film in the market. It continues to rank No. 1, with a 68 percent market share.
