"Moana 2" is expected to be a big hit at the Thanksgiving box office this weekend.
The sequel to Disney's hit musical "Moana" opens in 4,200 North American theaters on Wednesday and is expected to gross between $135 million and $145 million in its first five days of release. Those ticket sales would make it the highest-grossing Thanksgiving film of all time, surpassing 2019's Disney sequel "Frozen II" ($125 million in five days) and 2013's "The Hunger Games: Catching Fire" ($109 million in five days).
"Moana" will also make an international splash, bringing in another $100 million at the box office and bringing its worldwide gross to $235 million. Judging by advance sales and hype, the animated adventure could be another box office hit for Disney in 2024, following the massive success of Inside Out 2 in June ($1.6 billion) and Deadpool & Wolverine in July ($1.3 billion). The theater side is especially grateful for the anticipated success of the Moana sequel, which was developed as a TV series for Disney+ before it was made into a film.
The original Moana film grossed $82 million over the Thanksgiving long weekend in 2016. The film was a success for Disney, grossing $680 million at the global box office, but its popularity exploded on Disney+ and other digital platforms. According to Nielson, in 2023, seven years after its theatrical release, Moana became the most streamed film of the year in the United States, with 11.6 billion minutes of viewing time. In other words, the popularity of the Polynesian adventure has not waned since the first Trump administration. For this reason, the studio is also developing another live-action remake of the original, which is scheduled to be released in 2026.
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Dwayne Johnson and Auli'i Cravalho will reprise their voice roles as tattooed demigod Maui and Polynesian heroine (not princess) Moana in the sequel, as plucky wayfinders who journey to far-flung oceans to find a hidden island and a curse that will break. Lin-Manuel Miranda, who wrote unforgettable hits such as "How Far I'll Go" and "You're Welcome" in the first film, will not return for the second film, instead handing over composition duties to Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear, the duo behind the unofficial Bridgerton musical.
Thanksgiving is usually a crowded time at movie theaters, but this holiday season is expected to bring in record numbers thanks to "Wicked" and "Gladiator II." "Web Chaos," "Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald," and "Creed II" made $315 million in the biggest Thanksgiving of any movie to date. While post-pandemic Thanksgiving has been lackluster at best, the 2023 holiday was one of the worst in modern history, grossing just $125 million, led by Disney's "Wish" and "The Hunger Games" prequel "The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes."
"Wicked," the theatrical version of the first act of the hit Broadway show, grossed $129 million domestically and $178 million worldwide in its first four days. Universal's big-budget musical, starring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, is on track to finish in second place with a traditional weekend estimated at $60 million (down about 50% from its record-breaking $114 million opening) and at least $80 million over the five-day period. Audience enthusiasm for "Wicked" is not only desirable but necessary, as "Part 2," the musical's second act chronicle, will hit the big screen in 2025. The two films cost a combined $300 million to make, not including the extensive and expensive marketing efforts.
Meanwhile, "Gladiator II" has grossed $60.5 million domestically and $225 million worldwide to date. Paramount's R-rated sequel to 2000's "Gladiator" is expected to gross $33 million in North American theaters over the traditional weekend (down 44 percent from its $55.5 million debut), and $45 million from Wednesday through Sunday. The Sandals film, starring Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington, cost a whopping $250 million to make and at least $100 million to advertise, so to justify its price tag, the blockbuster would need to hold its own at the global box office.
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