This is hardly a stellar showing for a special effects adventure film with a whopping $250 million production budget and heavy marketing costs, playing in top-tier theaters. Unless Seven Bucks' film can withstand the storm of Wicked, Gladiator II and Moana 2 movies opening before Thanksgiving, Red One is unlikely to be a success in theaters.
The question remains as to how much Amazon cares about being associated with lukewarm box office takings, given that the company's market capitalization is over $2 trillion. In this context, the cost of "Red One" doesn't seem so scary. Amazon has already made a huge bid for the project in 2021, and the logic behind it is that the film could be a monster for the holiday season on Prime Video, and it could also complement Amazon's e-commerce business during holiday shopping. Plus, since "Red One" was originally commissioned as a Prime Video exclusive before Amazon added a wider release, the box office take is probably just an extra Christmas present for the company.
For Amazon MGM, "Red One" will handily mark the biggest opening weekend since "Creed III," which was made under MGM's old regime and released just a year after the acquisition. And "Red One" is shaping up to be better than last spring's Apple production, "Argyle," another expensive action movie with franchise potential. The film cost $200 million to make and grossed $96 million worldwide before being released on Apple TV+, which has a much smaller reach than Amazon Prime.
Still, you can play around with Red One a bit to see how well its star will be received in theaters. The film won't match the opening weekend box office take of Johnson's previous two films, Black Adam ($67 million) and Jungle Cruise ($35 million), but the latter was released for premium rental on Disney+ at the same time. And for Evans, it's not a triumphant return to the big screen, as his only live-action lead role has been available for streaming since his role as Captain America in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Directed by Jake Kasdan, Red One follows a group of battle-hardened specialists as they rescue a kidnapped Santa Claus (J.K. Simmons). Critics panned the film, but audiences are much happier. The polling agency CinemaScore gave it a positive rating of "A-" for early ticket buyers. To keep audiences hooked, the film needs to be on the audience's list of great movies.
Sony's Venom: The Last Dance is expected to drop to second place after three weekends atop the US charts, with its fourth instalment dropping 61% to $6.1 million. The Marvel spinoff has now grossed $120 million in North America and over $400 million worldwide. Despite a disappointing start, the Tom Hardy buddy comedy is holding strong and looks set to not come close to the success of its predecessor, Let There Be Carnage, which grossed $500 million worldwide. In third place was "The Greatest Christmas Pageant Ever," down 54% to $6 million. The Lionsgate release, with a production budget of $10 million, was set to surpass $20 million domestically just after the weekend, a solid box office performance for Christian-focused production company Kingdom Story Company.
A24's psychological thriller "Heretic" is expected to fall to fourth place, but competitors are predicting its second film will gross $4.6 million. That would be a 57% drop. The Hugh Grant-directed horror movie will also surpass the 20 million mark by Monday. Universal's "The Wild Robots" is expected to round out the top five, but with a slight decline (-32%) that will add another $4.5 million to its box office haul. The DreamWorks Animation film remains at the top of the charts in its eighth weekend. The film is expected to gross $137 million domestically through Sunday. It will then overtake fellow Lupita Nyong'ao star "A Quiet Place: Day One" ($138 million) to become the 12th highest-grossing North American release of the year.
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